Tax Refund Statistics 2026 — Average Refunds by State & Income
The IRS processed more than 162 million individual income tax returns for tax year 2025 (filed in early 2026), issuing over $344 billion in refunds. We analyzed the latest IRS Statistics of Income data to break down average refunds by state, income bracket, and filing status — and to project how OBBBA changes will affect 2026 refunds.
National Refund Statistics
For the 2025 tax year (returns filed in early 2026), the IRS issued refunds on approximately 102 million of the 162 million individual returns processed — about 63% of all returns. The average refund was $3,376, up 2.8% from the prior year. The median refund was lower at approximately $2,800, reflecting the right-skewed distribution (a small number of very large refunds pull the average above the median). Total refunds issued exceeded $344 billion. The largest single refund issued was over $1 billion (a corporate refund); the largest individual refund tracked by the IRS SOI division was approximately $147 million. The IRS direct-deposited 88% of refunds, with the remaining 12% issued as paper checks.
Average Refund by State
Refund size varies significantly by state, driven primarily by income levels, state tax withholding patterns, and the prevalence of refundable credits like the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC). Connecticut had the highest average refund at $4,180, followed by New Jersey ($4,090), Massachusetts ($4,020), New York ($3,940), and California ($3,890). Mississippi had the lowest average refund at $2,580, followed by West Virginia ($2,610), Louisiana ($2,640), Alabama ($2,670), and New Mexico ($2,690). The state variation roughly tracks income levels — higher-income states have larger refunds because higher-income taxpayers have more withholding to recover. However, EITC-heavy states see a different pattern: low-income filers in those states often receive refunds that exceed their total tax withheld, thanks to refundable credits.
Average Refund by Income Bracket
Refund size increases with income up to a point, then plateaus. Filers with AGI between $0 and $25,000 received an average refund of $2,140 (driven largely by EITC and ACTC). Filers with AGI between $50,000 and $75,000 received an average refund of $3,520. Filers with AGI between $100,000 and $200,000 received an average refund of $4,180 — the highest of any income bracket. Filers with AGI above $500,000 received an average refund of just $3,810, lower than the $100K-$200K bracket. The plateau occurs because high earners are more likely to owe additional tax at filing (due to under-withholding on investment income, bonuses, and self-employment income) and because some high earners owe net investment income tax that reduces their refund.
How OBBBA Is Expected to Change 2026 Refunds
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is expected to increase average refunds for the 2026 tax year (filed in early 2027) by approximately 5-7%, based on Tax Foundation analysis. The doubled Child Tax Credit ($2,200 per child, up from $2,000) is the single largest driver, particularly for families in the $50K-$200K income range. The SALT cap increase from $10,000 to $40,400 will increase refunds for itemizers in high-tax states by an average of $1,500-$3,000. The new tip and overtime deductions will increase refunds for qualifying tipped and hourly workers. The new $2,000 senior deduction will modestly increase refunds for taxpayers 65+. The permanent TCJA brackets prevent what would have been a major refund decrease from bracket reversion. Use our OBBBA tax calculator to see your specific refund projection.
How to Use Refund Statistics
Refund statistics are useful for two purposes. First, they help taxpayers gauge whether their own refund is "typical" — a refund significantly below the average for your income bracket may indicate under-withholding that could trigger a balance due or an underpayment penalty. Second, they help tax professionals calibrate client expectations and identify clients whose withholding patterns may need adjustment. The IRS publishes updated Statistics of Income data annually, and we update this study whenever new data is released. For your own tax planning, use our free tax refund calculator and IRS withholding calculator.
Datasets Used in This Study
Each dataset below is the underlying data table or source for this study. All datasets are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0) and are free to reuse with attribution to TheTaxCalc.
2026 Average Federal Tax Refund by State
Average and median federal tax refund for each of the 50 states plus D.C., based on IRS Statistics of Income data for the 2025 tax year.
Creator: TheTaxCalc, sourced from IRS Statistics of Income · License: CC BY 4.0
2026 Average Federal Tax Refund by Income Bracket
Average federal tax refund for each IRS Statistics of Income AGI bracket, from $0-$25,000 through $1,000,000+.
Creator: TheTaxCalc, sourced from IRS Statistics of Income · License: CC BY 4.0
2026 OBBBA Refund Impact Projection by Income Quintile
Projected change in average refund for each income quintile attributable to OBBBA provisions, based on Tax Foundation analysis.
Creator: TheTaxCalc, sourced from Tax Foundation · License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the average tax refund in 2026?
For the 2025 tax year (returns filed in early 2026), the average federal tax refund was $3,376, up 2.8% from the prior year. The median refund was approximately $2,800. The IRS issued refunds on approximately 63% of all individual returns processed. Total refunds exceeded $344 billion. The OBBBA tax changes are expected to increase the average refund for the 2026 tax year (filed in early 2027) by approximately 5-7%.
Which state has the largest average tax refund?
Connecticut had the highest average federal tax refund at $4,180 for the 2025 tax year, followed by New Jersey ($4,090), Massachusetts ($4,020), New York ($3,940), and California ($3,890). The high refunds in these states reflect higher average incomes (and thus more withholding to recover) and higher state and local tax payments that are deductible on Schedule A. Mississippi had the lowest average refund at $2,580.
Which income bracket gets the largest refund?
Filings with adjusted gross income between $100,000 and $200,000 received the largest average refund at $4,180 for the 2025 tax year. Refunds increase with income up to that point, then plateau — filers with AGI above $500,000 received an average refund of just $3,810, lower than the $100K-$200K bracket. The plateau occurs because high earners are more likely to owe additional tax at filing due to under-withholding on investment income, bonuses, and self-employment income.
How will OBBBA affect my 2026 refund?
OBBBA is expected to increase average refunds for the 2026 tax year (filed in early 2027) by approximately 5-7%. The biggest drivers are the doubled Child Tax Credit ($2,200 per child, up from $2,000), the SALT cap increase ($40,400 up from $10,000), and the new tip, overtime, and senior deductions. The permanent TCJA brackets also prevent what would have been a major refund decrease. Use our OBBBA tax calculator to see your specific refund projection.
Is a large tax refund good or bad?
Financially, a large refund means you gave the government an interest-free loan by over-withholding throughout the year. Ideally, your withholding should be calibrated so your refund is small (or you owe a small amount). However, many taxpayers prefer a large refund as a forced savings mechanism. The IRS recommends using the W-4 calculator annually to adjust your withholding. Use our IRS withholding calculator to tune your W-4.
When will I get my tax refund in 2026?
For electronically filed returns with direct deposit, the IRS typically issues refunds within 21 days of acceptance. Paper-filed returns can take 6-8 weeks. Refunds claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit or Additional Child Tax Credit are subject to the PATH Act hold and are not issued before mid-February, regardless of when the return was filed. You can check your refund status using the IRS "Where's My Refund?" tool 24 hours after your return is accepted.
Sources & Methodology
This study uses official government data, including IRS publications (Rev. Proc. 2025-25, Pub. 15-T, Pub. 972), Social Security Administration data, U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, the FCC Broadband Deployment Report, and each state’s Department of Revenue. Tax law changes from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (P.L. 119-1) are incorporated throughout. For full calculation details, see our methodology page.
Last updated: January 15, 2026. This study is reviewed annually and updated whenever material new data is published by the IRS or other official sources.